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CMW.News: Probability of Death with COVID-19 for Ages 0-30, BMI 24.9 and No Comorbidities
CMW.News:
This is a CMW.News Original.

Over the last two weeks, CMW.News has charted men's and women's 90-day risk of death with COVID-19 by age and BMI given no comorbidities. Risks were calculated based on data from millions of patients in England during the first half of 2020. Those risks are expected to be lower now based on reasons described earlier.

A limitation of the charts and the data from which they are derived is that ages are only modeled between 19 and 100 years. But what about those under 19? This article closes that gap by extrapolating risks from patients aged 19 to 30 years down to the younger ages. Calculated risks are then validated against real-world risks by country where available.

At the top of this article, the chart shows the calculated risk of death with COVID-19 for males aged 0-30 with a near-optimal BMI based on a power regression. The equivalent chart for females aged 0-30 is below.


Both charts show a discontinuity between 18 and 19 years where the extrapolated risks (0-18) are splined to risks from the original data (19-30).

Readily apparent from the charts is that risks for young males are lower than those for young females. However, both are very low for the healthy children shown.

Combining these risks with demographic data by age and sex from the UK's Office for National Statistics, we estimate one healthy male and six healthy females dying with COVID per 90-days. Healthy is defined as no comorbidities. From a theoretical perspective, the calculation underestimates deaths because not all children have a near-optimal BMI. As a result, calculated deaths should be higher but we don't have the data to know by how much it should be higher.

How do deaths in the real world compare to the seven calculated deaths? University College London reported the answer on November 12, 2021: Only six healthy children died of Covid during England's first year of the pandemic. Therefore, real deaths are even lower than our calculated deaths. In nearby Germany, a country with a larger number of children, results of an even more recent study were described in a headline as Huge new study shows ZERO Covid deaths of healthy German kids over 4 or adolescents. Meanwhile in the US, a researcher reported in the Wall Street Journal:
My research team at Johns Hopkins worked with the nonprofit FAIR Health to analyze approximately 48,000 children under 18 diagnosed with Covid in health-insurance data from April to August 2020. Our report found a mortality rate of zero among children without a pre-existing medical condition such as leukemia.
Real-world outcomes as well as our calculations show risk of death with COVID for healthy children as being close to zero. Therefore, there is not now, nor was there ever, a COVID emergency for healthy children. Despite this, health authorities are encouraging, and in some cases forcing, them to be injected with experimental vaccines.

These experimental treatments have close to no benefit but do have known short term costs including risks of heart damage. They also have unknown longer term risks. There is only downside to injecting children, a medically unnecessary and unethical procedure.