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CMW.News: Afghan Migrants - European Experience, Criminality Statistics, American Future
This is a CMW.News Original. It was also published earlier by The American Sun.

Americans and Europeans who oppose the mass migration of Afghans into their countries do so for primarily different reasons. Americans focus on the impact of unvetted Afghan migrants on the country's social fabric and on the risk of terrorism. Europeans focus on migrant crime. Both are understandable given recent events.

In the US, concern for the country's social fabric is in reaction to the anti-white BLM riots, anti-white CRT indoctrination and anti-white discrimination by the US government combined with this month's release of the 2020 Census results showing whites at 58% of the population (vs 85% at the census prior to 1965's landmark Immigration and Nationality Act). Concern about terrorism is likewise top of mind for Americans due to the Taliban's fresh victory as well as the upcoming 20th anniversary of 9/11.

Post-9/11, the highest casualty terrorist attacks in the US were by Muslim migrants or their children. Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev killed 4 and wounded 280 in the Boston Marathon Bombing and subsequent shootout (2013). Omar Mateen killed 49 and wounded 53 in the Pulse nightclub shooting (2016). US Army Major Nidal Hasan killed 13 and wounded 32 fellow soldiers in the Fort Hood shooting (2009). Ahmad Rahimi wounded 34 in the New Jersey and New York City bombings (2016).

Most relevant of these jihadist attacks was that of Omar Mateen, one of four US-born children of Afghan migrants. His father was a long-time FBI informant, his mother was arrested for domestic violence. Mateen was later also arrested for violence. As a youth he celebrated the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As an adult, he committed the worst mass shooting in US history as of 2016, killing 49 and wounding 53 at a Orlando, Florida nightclub.

Post-9/11, the highest casualty terrorist attacks in Europe were also by Muslim migrants or their children. Madrid train bombings killed 193 and wounded 2050 (2004). London bombings killed 56 and wounded 784 (2005). Paris attacks killed 138 and injured 413 (2015). The Nice truck attack killed 87 and wounded 434 (2016).

Clearly Europe remains vulnerable to terrorism. This has not escaped the attention of Europeans. And neither has the impact of migrants on the social fabric of their countries. But it is a specific abrasive to that fabric that is their primary concern: migrant crime in the aftermath of the 2015 migrant crisis.

2015's migrant crisis was triggered by the August 24 tweet by Angela Merkel's government that Germany would no longer apply the EU's Dublin Protocol to Syrian refugees. That is, Germany would no longer return Syrian asylum seekers to the first country they entered the EU.

Predictably, the result was an influx into the EU of over a million "Syrian" migrants, mainly young men from Asia and Africa. Merkel personally welcomed some of these migrants to Germany while her EU and Western European counterparts and the media followed her lead.

In the waning months of 2015, as hundreds of thousands of migrants traveled across the Balkans to Germany accompanied by celebratory political announcements and media cheerleading, disturbing on-the-ground reports surfaced on social media. The reports, of migrants robbing, assaulting and raping locals, and of authorities covering up the crimes, went unreported by mainstream media until they were forced to cover them by the events of New Year's Eve in the western German city of Cologne.

On New Year's Day, Cologne police reported that the previous night had been "mostly peaceful". Over the coming days, however, the truth emerged. News broke through the media blackout that hundreds (best estimate is 650) women were sexually assaulted by young migrant men in the vicinity of Cologne Cathedral in the heart of the city. Similar crimes were committed by migrants across Germany and other Western European countries the same night, crimes they had been committing since their entry to Europe.

In 2017, a former RAND Corporation program director who had worked on refugee issues for much of her professional life described "the large and growing incidence of sexual assaults committed by refugees against local women" as follows:
These were not of the cultural-misunderstanding-date-rape sort, but were vicious, no-preamble attacks on random girls and women, often committed by gangs or packs of young men. At first, the incidents were downplayed or hushed up—no one wanted to provide the right wing with fodder for nationalist agitation, and the hope was that these were isolated instances caused by a small problem group of outliers. As the incidents increased, and because many of them took place in public or because the public became involved either in stopping the attack or in aiding the victim afterwards, and because the courts began issuing sentences as the cases came to trial, the matter could no longer be swept under the carpet of political correctness. And with the official acknowledgment and public reporting, a weird and puzzling footnote emerged. Most of the assaults were being committed by refugees of one particular nationality: by Afghans.
Fast forward four years and the situation is unchanged:
An average of two women or girls is being gang-raped in Germany per day, with foreigners making up half of all perpetrators, according to data from the nation's equivalent to the FBI.

Figures released by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) in Germany showed that in 2020, there were 704 instances of gang rape throughout the country. This is compared to 710 in 2019 and 649 in 2018.

The horrific statistics were revealed by the German daily tabloid Bild-Zeitung, who reported that half of all suspects in the gang-rape cases were not German citizens and that often the perpetrators came from Islamic countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

Afghani migrants were said to be particularly overrepresented in the gang-rape statistics. While migrants from Afghanistan only make up around 0.3 per cent of the population, they accounted for six per cent of all suspects in 2018. Most of the rapes occurred while the migrants were applying for asylum in the country.

It is unclear how many offences are accounted for by people born in Germany with familial roots overseas.
Clearly, the BKA has detailed data on these crimes. In fact, the BKA publishes Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik (PKS), police criminal statistics, annually. PKS is compiled from data provided by Germany's 16 states covering crimes committed the previous year. Of particular relevance here is PKS's Table 62: Criminal Offenses and Country of Origin of non-German Suspects. The table is the world's most comprehensive database of crime by country of origin.

CMW.News combined data from PKS 2019 Table 62 with population data from Germany's Federal Statistical Office to calculate criminality in Germany by country of origin. Results are shown on a page that allows users to either select a crime to show stats by countries, or select a country to show stats by crimes. For clarity, crimes on the page are limited to all ten top level (Level 1) aggregate offenses and four selected crimes from the 890000 series in the BKA's Catalog of Offences 2019 rather than showing the 1,104 crimes from PKS 2019's Table 62. Note that PKS 2020 released earlier this year is expected to be consistent with results of PKS 2019 used for the analysis just as PKS 2019 was consistent with those of prior years.

Whether crime or country are selected, similar columns are shown: #Crimes (number of crimes by country of origin), RatePer100k (rate for crime per 100,000 people from country who are in Germany), xDERate (rate as a multiple of the German rate), #XSCrime (excess number of crimes above German rate). Detailed descriptions, sources and methodology are provided below the presentation table such as in this example of Afghanistan.

When Afghanistan is selected, we can see Afghan migrants commit all 14 crimes at multiples of the German rate. Highest among them is 892500 Murder, Manslaughter And Killing On Demand at 16.5 times the rate for German citizens. Also high is 100000 Crimes Against Sexual Self-Determination at 9.8 times the rate for German citizens. While not that high compared to other countries, when combined with the average Afghan population in Germany during the year it corresponds to #XSCrime of 1,162. This is slightly less than for Syrian migrants who have almost three times the population in Germany.

It should be remembered, however, that each of these bloodless numbers, each statistic, corresponds to a flesh-and-blood reality. Maria Ladenburger, a pretty 19-year-old medical student, daughter of an EU official, was raped and drowned by an Afghan migrant in 2016. Her rapist and murderer was recorded as a single increment in PKS 2016.

Yet there are thousands of other victims of violent crimes recorded in PKS committed by Afghan migrants year in, year out. And of course there are thousands of victims of violent crimes committed by Afghan migrants across Europe year after year not recorded by country of origin but occasionally reported in the media. One example was in June this year: a 13-year-old Austrian girl found next to a tree in Vienna after she was drugged, gang-raped and murdered by Afghan migrants.

Further afield the same pattern holds. In Sweden, a woman gang-raped for a week in 2015 by two Afghans. Also in Sweden, a woman gang-raped on Facebook Live for three hours in 2018 by another two Afghans. But these are just two of the countless sexual crimes committed by Afghans in Sweden.

One of the worst of those crimes took place in 2016 less than an hour north of Stockholm. It came to light that a boy was beaten and gang-raped at knife-point by five Afghan teens who later posted their crimes to social media. After being arrested and put on trial, the teens were:
found guilty of aggravated rape, but instead of being deported, they will serve sentences between 13-15 months. These child rapists cannot be deported, because they would be “hit very hard” as Afghanistan is unsafe, the court said.
This last crime and its postscript are revealing for two reasons. Firstly, they show Sweden's leniency, a leniency that appears to encourage higher criminality there by Afghan migrants than even in Germany. Secondly, if Afghanistan was too unsafe a destination to deport child rapists in 2016, what is the likelihood Sweden's judges will deport them there after the Taliban retook the country in 2021?

Where does that leave Sweden, Austria, Germany and the rest of the EU in 2021 with an impending mass migration of Afghans? What are their leaders saying?

Within days of Afghanistan falling to the Taliban, Sweden's prime minister vowed to not repeat the mistakes of the 2015 migrant crisis: "We will never go back to 2015". Austria's chancellor said his country would not take any more Afghans. Germany's chancellor-elect for the ruling CDU/CSU party asserted "2015 shall not be repeated", a rebuke to his predecessor Angela Merkel and her role in the 2015 crisis. The EU's foreign policy chief said the EU wanted "to ensure no wide-scale migratory move toward Europe."

What a difference six years makes. European politicians and even EU bureaucrats can learn.

In the US by contrast, their counterparts still have difficulty learning despite the inundation of the country's southern border by migrants this year. Afghan refugee resettlement into the US is supported by GOP governors of Utah, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Vermont, Texas, Arkansas and Nebraska. As with Merkel and politicians who followed her in 2015, these GOP politicians virtue signal now cheaply and in haste but will repent the cost at their leisure.

An idea of the cost in terms of violent crime can be estimated by comparing crime rates in the US to those of Afghans in Germany. Table 16 of the FBI's 2019 Crime in the United States publication shows Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter committed at a rate of 5.0 per 100,000 inhabitants. It shows Rape committed at 44.0 per 100,000.

CMW.News shows 892500 Murder, Manslaughter And Killing On Demand committed by Afghan migrants in Germany at a rate of 40.7 per 100,000 Afghans. It shows 100000 Crimes Against Sexual Self-Determination committed by those migrants at 516.5 on the same basis. Afghan migrants therefore commit these violent crimes at about ten times the already high US rate. Even if Afghan migrant crime was cut in half to five times the US rate, their importation will leave a clear trail of misery stretching into the future. And that is before considering the impact of future Omar Mateens.

For GOP governors who support Afghan refugee resettlement into the US, this will be their legacy. All those who facilitate Afghan migration into the US, and all those who stay silent knowing what has occurred, what is still occurring, and what will continue to occur in Europe, will rightfully be seen as accessories to their crimes.