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CMW.News: Probability of Death with COVID-19 for Female of specific Age, BMI and No Comorbidities
CMW.News:
This is a CMW.News Original.


Last week, CMW.News reported on the Probability of Death with COVID-19 for Male of specific Age, BMI and No Comorbidities. This week's focus is on the same measure and same factors but for females. The following paragraph from the original article applies to charts showing both females and males:
All charts were produced from outputs of the University of Oxford's QCovid Risk Assessment algorithm developed in 2020. Researchers developed the algorithm using data from 6 million patients, and validated it with data from 2 million more. They published a paper on their work in the BMJ on 20 October 2020, and made the algorithm available online at qcovid.org by 19 December 2020 and at Github as Open Source Version 1.1.0 on 26 March 2021.
For ease of comparing risk of death between the sexes, the vertical axis on each chart is the same for an age range. For example, the 19-100 year age range is charted above and below with a vertical axis of 0 to 2%.

Most apparent is that women have the same relative risk by BMI as men. Those of normal weight fair best while the most obese fair worst. Being severely underweight is also a disadvantage for women but not as much as it is for men.

Also readily apparent is that among the aged, men are more at risk than women. A 100-year-old man with the best BMI has a similar risk of death with COVID to a 100-year-old woman with the worst BMI: both slightly above 6 per 1,000.

Female vs Male 90-Day Risk of Death with COVID (Ages 19-100)

Men are also more at risk than women at the upper end of the 19-65 age range as seen on the chart below. However, the difference in risk between the sexes is narrower at 65 than it is at 100.

Female vs Male 90-Day Risk of Death with COVID (Ages 19-65)

At age 30, relative risk by sex has reversed. For most BMI's, risk of death with COVID for men is lower than it is for women. At age 19, even the man with the worst BMI has a lower risk than the woman with the best BMI.

Female vs Male 90-Day Risk of Death with COVID (Ages 19-30)

What these comparisons should not obscure is that for most people with no comorbidities, risk of death with COVID is low. For almost all those aged 19-30, risk is single figures per million. And risk stays low for a long time. For 65-year-olds, it is still single figures per ten thousand. Even for almost all those who are 100, risk is single figures per thousand, that is, only tenths of a percent.

For reasons elaborated upon in the original, we expect these risks are lower now than they were in early 2020. But even at early 2020 levels, it is clear COVID was never an emergency for most people.



Other Full-size Charts re Female of specific Age, BMI and No Comorbidities